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20 August 2007 @ 04:30 pm
another bizarre late summer?  
Another reason I have not been writing down what is going on is because I have been spending some extra time watching my retirement investments.

I think the stock market has finally decisively turned direction, but to me this is very overdue, because I have no faith in America or it's economy so I think there has been something fraudulent and absurd about the fact that the market has gone up at all since about 2003.

For me there are important connections between the environmental, social, and economic trends happening.

I also think the thread that ties these together is energy.

Since I believe peak oil has begun, because I am deeply involved with energy issues in my personal life, because I am interested in Louisiana where energy is produced, because I am so interested in weather, because we're involved militarily because of energy -all these reasons and others add up for me and tend to make me prone to freaking out over hectic events involving energy.

The main thing that makes it all so un-real though is the deep denial that permeates most people about these things. I call it mass delusional optimism.

I always feel like I live in an insane asylum.

It is very stressful for me.

But at least it is not intertwined this late summer with illness or imminent death in the family.

And, I've thought through everything more since Katrina two years ago, which was a spark that caused me to freak out severely then.

I still believe everything I believed two years ago about the world and where it's headed, but two more years of thinking it all through has lessened the fear of what things might be like in 2012 or 2015.

And, back to the investment issue, my theories have held up well since 2003.

That's when I decided the distorted public perception of energy also infected the energy market. The key to big investment gains is knowing what the herd doesn't know or is unable to consciously acknowledge.

So I made huge gains because I consistently bet on rising oil prices for four years while most others were betting against them.

I took profits in 2006 and sat out the decline around Christmas fueled by the lame hurricane season last year followed by the early winter warmth.

I think fear of a recession will now cause another small downward blip in energy prices, so I'm going to wait for another possible bottom and then buy back in hoping I can repeat what happened from 2003 to 2006.

I'm only using a fraction of my money for my energy investment plans, so I can sleep at night knowing even if some great depression wipes out demand for energy I'll be OK because that's just one place where I have funds.