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01 October 2008 @ 07:51 pm
Now, talking this out...Where do I start?  

It's evening now, even though in the last post I said I'd try to vent my anger through writing at lunchtime.

Actually, I did write out some thoughts at lunchtime, but as e-mails to friends, not here.

But tonight, I'll just address one small aspect of the situation as I see it, because I'm tired so I can't write for very long.

Let's start with the most important question...

Why am I more pessimistic than probably 99.9 percent of the human race?


Energy. That's why!

"Wait a minute", you say. -"First of all, that's so last summer. Everybody knows there is now big-time demand destruction because of this slowdown."

Well, as usual, everybody is wrong! (This is the same "everybody" that denied the economic meltdown until it began in recent months, even though it's been looming as inevitable for years.)

-The demand destruction is NOT happening.

Even conservative agencies that "don't believe in peak oil" are STILL predicting at least 1 percent growth in global demand in 2009.

At this year's ASPO conference in September, Matt Simmons and others presented in great detail why demand for oil will still be rising in the next few years regardless of whether it's $80 per barrel or $300.

And, we peak oilers are even more convinced that supplies available to importing nations like the US are going to drop significantly each year from now on.

"OK, that sounds very scary, but what's it have to do with this bailout?"

...I'll answer that in my next post...